Friday, February 21, 2014

Stage-by-stage development strategy for a primitive economy

Economic development involves structural change and growth. A structural change accompanying economic growth usually involves human development. It is natural to measure performance of a country's level of economic development with per capita product or per capita income. A person produces more in advanced country than in developing country because the economic system in advanced countries provides him with better environments to work.

A well-developed economic system performs better than a poorly-developed one. It is because of this that some economies record positive growth of income per capita continously while others show persistently poor performance, with their income per capita staying at a low or subsistence level with occasional ups and downs around it. For example, GDP per capita of U.K. and Africa rose from 974 dollars and 422 dollars, respectively, in 1600 to 20,127 US dollars and 1,489 dollars, respectively, in 2001 while that of the world on average increased from 595 dollars in 1600 to 6,049 dollars in 2001(Maddison 2003). Despite of growth ㅐin absolute terms, Africa has falln further behind the world on average while the UK has forged ahead.

Characteristics of economic systems matters. It is not only the difference of individual propensity to save and individual company's willingness to take risks that determine the growth performance of an economy. But, systemic charateristics which includes not only institutions suchas ownership of land and demographic feature such as longevity but also ofthe size of markets matter. Market size matters because division of labor is limited by the extent of markets as Adam Smith has explained. Individual choices regarding savings, the number of children they would like to give birth to affects the sizes of facor markets. Interaction between individual actions and aggregate sizes of markets, i.e., spillover effects, auses non-linearity of the relationship between aggregate inputs and outputs. One of the outcomes of such non-linear relationship is stages of economic development. New division of labor at th



al s one of the main challenges poses to development economics by the question: how can an underdeveloped country transform its economic system into a well-performing one? or, how can a Sub-Saharan country develop its underdeveloped economy? There are several competing but not necessarily incompatible paradigms to explain the mechanism of economic development. Mainstream development economics equates economic development with industrialization and argue that markets, when left uninterrupted, work freely would work to bring about economic development, i.e., industrialization. These arguments usually neglect to check whether there are institutional infrastructure for thr market to appear. In contrast, others argue that economic liberalization may be big-push industrialization efforts or market liberalization can be premature. The reasons include lack of market institutions or lack of commercialization due to traditional cultures and institutions. This line of argument leads to stages-of-economic-development (SED)theories; a primitive economy develop discretely or stage by stage.

In macroeconomic growth theory, stages of economic development is defined as multiple steady states as in Azariades and Drazen (1990). According to them, initial average quality of labor in an economy determines the speed of economic productivity growth afterwards. Multiple stationary states come into existence when aggregate production function undergoes a change in its returns to scale.

In two-sector growth model by Jorgenson (1961 1967), sectors develops in a unique sequence: agriculture need to develop to a threshold level before industry starts to develop sustainably. The reason is that agricultural productivity need to be enhanced enough to feed workers in newly established industry. In this model, exogenous technical progress in agriculture is the key to agricultural and then industrial development.

In multi-sector growth model by Goodfriend and McDermott(1995), multiple steady states comes into existence as economic development is made possible by advent of specialization, trade, and risk-taking and, after commercialization increases the returns to human capital accumulation above a threshold, by human capital accumulation.

The reality resembles mixture of the multiple steady states in the overlapping generations model by AD(1990) and sequential development of multisector economy in GM(1995). Here, economic development starts with specilization and commercialization of subsistence family farming and proceeds to factor (especially human capital) accumulation over generations which makes the initial level of average labor quality at a time exceeds a threshold. In terms of two-sector model, specialization means agricultural development together with commercialization; human capital accumulation made possible by agricultural development feeds into industrialization process. Given these characterization, a natural sequence of stages would be a primitive economy, a commercialized agriculture economy, and industrial economy.

Given that African and British individuals have largely the same individual development potential at birth, the large gap in growth performance poses a puzzle. Economic growth theory explains it ing the remarkably different growth performance is a big challenge to development economics. Some African countries like The Zimbabㅕwe recorded ups of GDP per capita till mid-1980s and ever since downs.
The contrast between a trend-like growth of income per capita and stagnation at a subsistence income level.

the growth was not shared evenly among countries and continents. For example,

It is a usual practice to divide economies into three groups or stages: low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries to represent underdeveloped, developing, and developed countries.

A major issue in development economics is to explain why and how Development economics is a social science which looks into the mechanism of economic development.

Some studies posit that economic development result from some fortuitous combination of factor accumulation and technological progress. Most growth accounting and growth regression exercises take this approach to decompose growth performance. This approach helps identify the factors that had driven up or weighed down on economic growth ex post. But, it is silent about the interaction between factor accumulation and productivity growth. Anothe Nobelaureate North stresses that institutions which determines incentives for individuals to accumulate factors as well as to innovate.

affect both factor accumulation and technological Economist The key to economic development. process with a model incorporating one final goodcan be described Most of the theories Given the different stages of economic development to which an economy in the world belongs, such a mechanism is that it needs to be tailored to the needs of to recognize on developing countries can catch up income per capita of developed countries. In the level and changes in the level of GDP per capita. An economy showing trend-like increase in GDP per capita is considered to have succeeded in economic development. In contrast, some countries especially in Sub-Saharan Africa show long-term stagnation of GDP per capita. Although they recorded some ups and downs, they eventually returns to subsistence level of GDP per capita.

The methodology of growth accounting, growth regressions, and growth diagnostics tries to explain the changes in GDP per capita in terms of exogenous or endogenous factor accumulation anc technological progress. However, It still remains a challenge for development economists to explain why some economies adamantly stay in stagnation while others jump start and continue to grow.

To address this issue, I propose a stage-by-stage approach to economic development.

GD vs SED


Economic development involves structural
change and growth.

In the tradition of neoclassical one-good
growth model which assumes identical individuals and perfectly competitive
markets, economic structure does not matter. Growth regressions and growth
accounting practices based on this approach attribute per capita income growth
to capital deepening and exogenous technological progress. According to the
approach, low per capita income growth is due to low factor accumulation or
slow technological progress or both. Or, higher productivity of an individual
in advanced country than one in developing country is attributed to more
capital or better technology that he or she is equipped with. Or, an economy’s
slow (fast) growth is attributed to slow (fast) factor accumulation or slow (fast)
technological progress or both.

Before 1600, U.K’s GDP per capita growth
was more or less similar with Africa whereas, during the period over 1600 to
2001, U.K’s per capita growth picked up while that of Africa remained more or
less remained similar to the previous period. Accordingly, the discrepancy of annual
GDP per capita growth between U.K. and Africa, which was 0.05%p over the period
from 1 to 1600 A.D., increased to 0.45%p over the period from 1600 to 2001 (Maddison
2003). The same people living in two different places realized different
performance in technological progress during the latter period. How come this
happen? Given the assumption of identical individuals, factor accumulation per
person would be similar between the two places. Then difference in exogenous
technological progress is to explain differences in growth performance. It
remains in black box.

Characteristics of economic systems
matters. It is not only the difference of individual propensity to save and
individual company's willingness to take risks that determine the growth
performance of an economy. But, systemic characteristics which include not only
institutions such as ownership of land and demographic feature such as longevity
but also of the size of markets matter. Market size matters because division of
labor is limited by the extent of markets as Adam Smith has explained.
Individual choices regarding savings, the number of children they would like to
give birth to affects the sizes of factor markets. Interaction between
individual actions and aggregate sizes of markets, i.e., spillover effects, causes
non-linearity of the relationship between aggregate inputs and outputs. One of
the outcomes of such non-linear relationship is stages of economic development.
New division of labor at th

The implication of demographic changes on savings and investment

The implication of domography for savings and investment depends on the stage in the demographic transition. When populations are relatively young(old), increases(decreases) in working-age population support higher(lower) rates of investment spending while falling(increasing) age dependency ratios allow households to increase(decrease) savings rates.

Role of Agriculture in Economic Developemnt Revisited

Sub-topics include

i) the role of agriculture v.s. industry as engine of earlyeconomic development
(Timmer 1988, Jorgenson 1961, Lewis 1954, Smith1776, Malthus 1798-1826, Matsuyama 1992);

ii) the role of agriculture in early demographic change(Boserup 1981);

iii) the role of agriculture with equitable distribution of landand property rights in early social development
(Kenneth Kang et al. 1999);

iv) the role of social capability on economic development (Abromovitz 1986)

v) the link between demographic change in the size and agecomposition of population and early economic development(Bloom et al.2003),

vi) the transformation of agricultural household sector from asource of negative external effects to one of positive externaleffects(Acemoglu 1993);

vii) the role of agricultural development inenhancing calory in-take and thus improving the quality of laborenough to endure highly intensive work(Fogel 1993).

Key words to the proposed answer include:

i) broadly-based agriculturaldevelopmnet,
ii) stages of economic development,
iii) human development as thekey to economic development,
iv) asymmetric roles of agriculture andindustry in human development,
v) interaction between agriculturaldevelopment and human development taking effects over generations,
vi) abroader framework toward economic development in SSA,
vii) completing the missing link in the literature,
viii) demographic dividend,
ix) institutional infrastructures such as communal ownership of land,
x) children as a means of savings,
xi) immobility of the smallholder subsistence of farmers in SSA to industrial sector,
xii) generation of new healthy generation via agricultural development and making investments in the next generationwith agricultural surpluses.
xiii) social capability

Overlapping stages of economic developments

Overlapping stages of economic development
Economies in the world are at different stages of development. An economy passes through a typical sequence of stages; as an infant grows to an adolescent stage and then to an adult, a primitive economy evolves into an agriculture-based commercial economy and then to an industry-based commercial economy.

Integration of markets in infant and adolescent economies with those in advanced economies involves frictions, which include, for example, up-hill flows of capital as articulated by Lucas(1990)'s observation of capital flowing from poor countries to rich countries and Bernanke(2010)'s 'global savings glut' argument; the environments for business and investments in developing countries are so bad as to drive whatever private capital accumulated in developing countries move to advanced countries in search of better investment opportunities; or, the macroeconomics of developing economies are so vulnerable to external shocks that public capital accumulated by developing countries move to advanced countries in search of safe haven.

Besides, market integration with advanced countries provides infant and adolescent economies with the opportunities to grow; the opportunities come with the risks to perpetuatue imbalances between the infant and adolescent economies and adult economies.

As a result of market integrations between developing and developed economies, a typical developing economy comes to have a dual structure consisting of modern and tranditions sectors with stages of economic development overlapping with each other; although the modern sector is integrated with advanced economies, the traditional sector is adamentaly isolated. Persistence of different stages of economic development in an economy reflects the failure of the economy to make a transition to the next stage.

Mechanism of econmic transition
Transformation of a primitive economy to a higher stage has usually been initiated by domestic reforms to establish private properties or any other institutions to provide individuals with incentives to work hard. For example, the transition from an agriculture-based commercial economy in 17th century U.K. was preceded by the Glorious Revolution in 1688, through which private properties on land had been ensured.

The transition to an industry-based commercial economy was stimulated by the agriculture-based commercial economy's interaction with other countries.

Effects of financial and monetary integration
According to a research on the effects of capital account liberalization (CAL) on capital flows (OECD 2011.6), CAL leads to increases in both foreign debt stock and net foreign debt(current account deficit) while trade opening leads to an increase in foreign debt stock and a decrease in net foreign debt in a panel data on average. It implies that CAL leads to an accelerated and unsustainable growth of debts and thus to a financial crisis.

Mody and Murashid (2011.4) have shown that CAL has positive spillovers on economies with the capabilities to cope with growth volatilites while it has no positive, sometimes negative, effects on growth of the economies which had not attained such capabilities yet.

Stages of economic development overlap with each other and persist in a developing economy. Suppose a developing economy. Financial integration of the economy with advanced economy without monetary integration more often than not results in opportunities to gain from regulatory arbitrage trading. Exchange rate volatility will hamper capital to flow downhill or uphill.

But, financial integration together with monetary integration of the economy with an advanced economy will facilitate capital flow downhill. The capital account will be in surplus while the current account will be in deficits. The former will drive the latter. Private and public debts increase together with increases in private and public investments. The downside is that, more often than not, debt sustainability is put into question.

Policy implications
Is it possible for a present-day agriculture-based commercial economy to benefit from financial integration with the advanced economies in proceeding to a higher stage of economic development?

For some countries, financial control is to blame for economic underdevelopment. For other countries (South Korea in 1960s and 1970s), financial control is to be praised for economic development. For the Gambia which lacks a robust borrower base, financial and capital account liberalization did little good. The effects of financial and current account liberalization depend on which stage of development the economy lies in.

Financial and monetary integration of Greece with Euro economy has been premature. But, it allowed capital flow to flow downhill within the EURO area.