Agrarian reform was the key to the Vietnamese success as it was in Japan, China, Taiwan, and South Korea.

"Đổi Mới ("Renovation") is the name given to the economic reforms initiated in Vietnam in 1986 with the goal of creating a "socialist-oriented market economy". "Land Law was enacted in 1988, stipulating the recognition of private land use rights by the state. In addition, ...farmers were permitted to use land for long term and sell their products on the free market and not obliged to participate in Cooperatives.^[10] Households in almost all the cooperatives in the Red River delta were given rights to agricultural fields by late 1988." Wikipedia"

"농업에서는 사실상 탈사회주의화가 일어났다. 농지를 가구 구성원 숫자 기준으로 배분해 장기간의 토지 사용권(논은 20년, 산림은 50년)을 줬다. 토지소유권은 국가가 갖지만, 농민이 상속, 전매, 저당 권리를 갖게 했다"=실질적 사유화, 89년부터 쌀 수출국으로 탈바꿈 하였다. 

"외국인 투자의 활력이 국내 경제로 연결되지 않고 있다는 점이 가장 큰 문제다...인민이 먹고 사는 문제부터 해결해야 한다. 베트남이 농업부문부터 먼저 손을 댄 것을 눈여겨봐야 한다. 생산과 분배의 단위를 집단이 아닌 개별 농가로 삼으면서 생산성이 뛰어올랐다. 북한도 현재 분조도급제를 농가 경영제로 전환하는 것이 급선무이다...외국인 투자를 강조하지만, 농업생산 안정화가 선결과제이다... 농약과 씨앗 등 영농 자재보급, 관개시설 정비 같은 농가 지원활동으로 농업 생산력을 높일 필요가 있다.(중앙일보 이현상 2019.2.15일)"

Structural change in the effects of the exchange rate on output in Korea

Structural change in the effects of the exchange rate on output in Korea, The Bank of Korea Economic Papers 7(2), 2003.

BIS Presentation 2004 Fall Economist Meeting
BIS HK April 2006 Presentation

Agricultural sector development and structural transformation: Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia 2014

SSRN BOK ERI

Agricultural sector development and structural transformation: Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia 2014

독일 금융시스템의 구조와 국제화 과정

독일금융시스템의 구조와 국제화 과정

clean power and connectivity in East Africa

clean power and connectivity in East Africa

As a referee for the 2nd United Nations Academic Impact Collegians Research Paper Contest

I served as one of the Judges for the second time. To see my activities there, you can click here.

Some of my papers appear in the site of "SSRN BOKERI"

Stage-by-stage development strategy for a primitive economy

Economic development involves structural change and growth. A structural change accompanying economic growth usually involves human development. It is natural to measure performance of a country's level of economic development with per capita product or per capita income. A person produces more in advanced country than in developing country because the economic system in advanced countries provides him with better environments to work.

A well-developed economic system performs better than a poorly-developed one. It is because of this that some economies record positive growth of income per capita continously while others show persistently poor performance, with their income per capita staying at a low or subsistence level with occasional ups and downs around it. For example, GDP per capita of U.K. and Africa rose from 974 dollars and 422 dollars, respectively, in 1600 to 20,127 US dollars and 1,489 dollars, respectively, in 2001 while that of the world on average increased from 595 dollars in 1600 to 6,049 dollars in 2001(Maddison 2003). Despite of growth ㅐin absolute terms, Africa has falln further behind the world on average while the UK has forged ahead.

Characteristics of economic systems matters. It is not only the difference of individual propensity to save and individual company's willingness to take risks that determine the growth performance of an economy. But, systemic charateristics which includes not only institutions suchas ownership of land and demographic feature such as longevity but also ofthe size of markets matter. Market size matters because division of labor is limited by the extent of markets as Adam Smith has explained. Individual choices regarding savings, the number of children they would like to give birth to affects the sizes of facor markets. Interaction between individual actions and aggregate sizes of markets, i.e., spillover effects, auses non-linearity of the relationship between aggregate inputs and outputs. One of the outcomes of such non-linear relationship is stages of economic development. New division of labor at th



al s one of the main challenges poses to development economics by the question: how can an underdeveloped country transform its economic system into a well-performing one? or, how can a Sub-Saharan country develop its underdeveloped economy? There are several competing but not necessarily incompatible paradigms to explain the mechanism of economic development. Mainstream development economics equates economic development with industrialization and argue that markets, when left uninterrupted, work freely would work to bring about economic development, i.e., industrialization. These arguments usually neglect to check whether there are institutional infrastructure for thr market to appear. In contrast, others argue that economic liberalization may be big-push industrialization efforts or market liberalization can be premature. The reasons include lack of market institutions or lack of commercialization due to traditional cultures and institutions. This line of argument leads to stages-of-economic-development (SED)theories; a primitive economy develop discretely or stage by stage.

In macroeconomic growth theory, stages of economic development is defined as multiple steady states as in Azariades and Drazen (1990). According to them, initial average quality of labor in an economy determines the speed of economic productivity growth afterwards. Multiple stationary states come into existence when aggregate production function undergoes a change in its returns to scale.

In two-sector growth model by Jorgenson (1961 1967), sectors develops in a unique sequence: agriculture need to develop to a threshold level before industry starts to develop sustainably. The reason is that agricultural productivity need to be enhanced enough to feed workers in newly established industry. In this model, exogenous technical progress in agriculture is the key to agricultural and then industrial development.

In multi-sector growth model by Goodfriend and McDermott(1995), multiple steady states comes into existence as economic development is made possible by advent of specialization, trade, and risk-taking and, after commercialization increases the returns to human capital accumulation above a threshold, by human capital accumulation.

The reality resembles mixture of the multiple steady states in the overlapping generations model by AD(1990) and sequential development of multisector economy in GM(1995). Here, economic development starts with specilization and commercialization of subsistence family farming and proceeds to factor (especially human capital) accumulation over generations which makes the initial level of average labor quality at a time exceeds a threshold. In terms of two-sector model, specialization means agricultural development together with commercialization; human capital accumulation made possible by agricultural development feeds into industrialization process. Given these characterization, a natural sequence of stages would be a primitive economy, a commercialized agriculture economy, and industrial economy.

Given that African and British individuals have largely the same individual development potential at birth, the large gap in growth performance poses a puzzle. Economic growth theory explains it ing the remarkably different growth performance is a big challenge to development economics. Some African countries like The Zimbabㅕwe recorded ups of GDP per capita till mid-1980s and ever since downs.
The contrast between a trend-like growth of income per capita and stagnation at a subsistence income level.

the growth was not shared evenly among countries and continents. For example,

It is a usual practice to divide economies into three groups or stages: low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries to represent underdeveloped, developing, and developed countries.

A major issue in development economics is to explain why and how Development economics is a social science which looks into the mechanism of economic development.

Some studies posit that economic development result from some fortuitous combination of factor accumulation and technological progress. Most growth accounting and growth regression exercises take this approach to decompose growth performance. This approach helps identify the factors that had driven up or weighed down on economic growth ex post. But, it is silent about the interaction between factor accumulation and productivity growth. Anothe Nobelaureate North stresses that institutions which determines incentives for individuals to accumulate factors as well as to innovate.

affect both factor accumulation and technological Economist The key to economic development. process with a model incorporating one final goodcan be described Most of the theories Given the different stages of economic development to which an economy in the world belongs, such a mechanism is that it needs to be tailored to the needs of to recognize on developing countries can catch up income per capita of developed countries. In the level and changes in the level of GDP per capita. An economy showing trend-like increase in GDP per capita is considered to have succeeded in economic development. In contrast, some countries especially in Sub-Saharan Africa show long-term stagnation of GDP per capita. Although they recorded some ups and downs, they eventually returns to subsistence level of GDP per capita.

The methodology of growth accounting, growth regressions, and growth diagnostics tries to explain the changes in GDP per capita in terms of exogenous or endogenous factor accumulation anc technological progress. However, It still remains a challenge for development economists to explain why some economies adamantly stay in stagnation while others jump start and continue to grow.

To address this issue, I propose a stage-by-stage approach to economic development.

GD vs SED

Economic development involves structural
change and growth.

In the tradition of neoclassical one-good
growth model which assumes identical individuals and perfectly competitive
markets, economic structure does not matter. Growth regressions and growth
accounting practices based on this approach attribute per capita income growth
to capital deepening and exogenous technological progress. According to the
approach, low per capita income growth is due to low factor accumulation or
slow technological progress or both. Or, higher productivity of an individual
in advanced country than one in developing country is attributed to more
capital or better technology that he or she is equipped with. Or, an economy’s
slow (fast) growth is attributed to slow (fast) factor accumulation or slow (fast)
technological progress or both.

Before 1600, U.K’s GDP per capita growth
was more or less similar with Africa whereas, during the period over 1600 to
2001, U.K’s per capita growth picked up while that of Africa remained more or
less remained similar to the previous period. Accordingly, the discrepancy of annual
GDP per capita growth between U.K. and Africa, which was 0.05%p over the period
from 1 to 1600 A.D., increased to 0.45%p over the period from 1600 to 2001 (Maddison
2003). The same people living in two different places realized different
performance in technological progress during the latter period. How come this
happen? Given the assumption of identical individuals, factor accumulation per
person would be similar between the two places. Then difference in exogenous
technological progress is to explain differences in growth performance. It
remains in black box.

Characteristics of economic systems
matters. It is not only the difference of individual propensity to save and
individual company's willingness to take risks that determine the growth
performance of an economy. But, systemic characteristics which include not only
institutions such as ownership of land and demographic feature such as longevity
but also of the size of markets matter. Market size matters because division of
labor is limited by the extent of markets as Adam Smith has explained.
Individual choices regarding savings, the number of children they would like to
give birth to affects the sizes of factor markets. Interaction between
individual actions and aggregate sizes of markets, i.e., spillover effects, causes
non-linearity of the relationship between aggregate inputs and outputs. One of
the outcomes of such non-linear relationship is stages of economic development.
New division of labor at th

The implication of demographic changes on savings and investment

The implication of domography for savings and investment depends on the stage in the demographic transition. When populations are relatively young(old), increases(decreases) in working-age population support higher(lower) rates of investment spending while falling(increasing) age dependency ratios allow households to increase(decrease) savings rates.

Role of Agriculture in Economic Developemnt Revisited

Sub-topics include

i) the role of agriculture v.s. industry as engine of earlyeconomic development
(Timmer 1988, Jorgenson 1961, Lewis 1954, Smith1776, Malthus 1798-1826, Matsuyama 1992);

ii) the role of agriculture in early demographic change(Boserup 1981);

iii) the role of agriculture with equitable distribution of landand property rights in early social development
(Kenneth Kang et al. 1999);

iv) the role of social capability on economic development (Abromovitz 1986)

v) the link between demographic change in the size and agecomposition of population and early economic development(Bloom et al.2003),

vi) the transformation of agricultural household sector from asource of negative external effects to one of positive externaleffects(Acemoglu 1993);

vii) the role of agricultural development inenhancing calory in-take and thus improving the quality of laborenough to endure highly intensive work(Fogel 1993).

Key words to the proposed answer include:

i) broadly-based agriculturaldevelopmnet,
ii) stages of economic development,
iii) human development as thekey to economic development,
iv) asymmetric roles of agriculture andindustry in human development,
v) interaction between agriculturaldevelopment and human development taking effects over generations,
vi) abroader framework toward economic development in SSA,
vii) completing the missing link in the literature,
viii) demographic dividend,
ix) institutional infrastructures such as communal ownership of land,
x) children as a means of savings,
xi) immobility of the smallholder subsistence of farmers in SSA to industrial sector,
xii) generation of new healthy generation via agricultural development and making investments in the next generationwith agricultural surpluses.
xiii) social capability

Overlapping stages of economic developments

Overlapping stages of economic development
Economies in the world are at different stages of development. An economy passes through a typical sequence of stages; as an infant grows to an adolescent stage and then to an adult, a primitive economy evolves into an agriculture-based commercial economy and then to an industry-based commercial economy.

Integration of markets in infant and adolescent economies with those in advanced economies involves frictions, which include, for example, up-hill flows of capital as articulated by Lucas(1990)'s observation of capital flowing from poor countries to rich countries and Bernanke(2010)'s 'global savings glut' argument; the environments for business and investments in developing countries are so bad as to drive whatever private capital accumulated in developing countries move to advanced countries in search of better investment opportunities; or, the macroeconomics of developing economies are so vulnerable to external shocks that public capital accumulated by developing countries move to advanced countries in search of safe haven.

Besides, market integration with advanced countries provides infant and adolescent economies with the opportunities to grow; the opportunities come with the risks to perpetuatue imbalances between the infant and adolescent economies and adult economies.

As a result of market integrations between developing and developed economies, a typical developing economy comes to have a dual structure consisting of modern and tranditions sectors with stages of economic development overlapping with each other; although the modern sector is integrated with advanced economies, the traditional sector is adamentaly isolated. Persistence of different stages of economic development in an economy reflects the failure of the economy to make a transition to the next stage.

Mechanism of econmic transition
Transformation of a primitive economy to a higher stage has usually been initiated by domestic reforms to establish private properties or any other institutions to provide individuals with incentives to work hard. For example, the transition from an agriculture-based commercial economy in 17th century U.K. was preceded by the Glorious Revolution in 1688, through which private properties on land had been ensured.

The transition to an industry-based commercial economy was stimulated by the agriculture-based commercial economy's interaction with other countries.

Effects of financial and monetary integration
According to a research on the effects of capital account liberalization (CAL) on capital flows (OECD 2011.6), CAL leads to increases in both foreign debt stock and net foreign debt(current account deficit) while trade opening leads to an increase in foreign debt stock and a decrease in net foreign debt in a panel data on average. It implies that CAL leads to an accelerated and unsustainable growth of debts and thus to a financial crisis.

Mody and Murashid (2011.4) have shown that CAL has positive spillovers on economies with the capabilities to cope with growth volatilites while it has no positive, sometimes negative, effects on growth of the economies which had not attained such capabilities yet.

Stages of economic development overlap with each other and persist in a developing economy. Suppose a developing economy. Financial integration of the economy with advanced economy without monetary integration more often than not results in opportunities to gain from regulatory arbitrage trading. Exchange rate volatility will hamper capital to flow downhill or uphill.

But, financial integration together with monetary integration of the economy with an advanced economy will facilitate capital flow downhill. The capital account will be in surplus while the current account will be in deficits. The former will drive the latter. Private and public debts increase together with increases in private and public investments. The downside is that, more often than not, debt sustainability is put into question.

Policy implications
Is it possible for a present-day agriculture-based commercial economy to benefit from financial integration with the advanced economies in proceeding to a higher stage of economic development?

For some countries, financial control is to blame for economic underdevelopment. For other countries (South Korea in 1960s and 1970s), financial control is to be praised for economic development. For the Gambia which lacks a robust borrower base, financial and capital account liberalization did little good. The effects of financial and current account liberalization depend on which stage of development the economy lies in.

Financial and monetary integration of Greece with Euro economy has been premature. But, it allowed capital flow to flow downhill within the EURO area.

My dissertation link

Year: December 1995
Title: Selective Credit Allocation and Industrial Development in South Korea
http://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/bitstream/handle/10125/9662/uhm_phd_9615531_r.pdf?sequence=2

튀니지 민중혁명 직후

2011년 2월 22일 화.

이곳 튀니지는 표면상 평화로운 분위기네. 민중혁명이 성공한 이후 길거리에 거지, 잡상인이 크게 증가하였네. 그다지도 까다롭던 길거리 주차단속은 중단되었고 길거리주차장은 사실상 무료화되었지.

그동안 경찰에 눌려 마음대로 행동하지 않던 예의, 염치, 양심이 없는 사람들이 물을 만난 것같아. 혁명이후 더 과감하게 외국인에게 대쉬하곤 해. 와이프가 어제 저녁 예전처럼 여기고 산책을 나갔다가 봉변을 당할 뻔 하였지. 조심해야지.

어제 폴란드인 신부가 살해되었는데 이슬람원리주의자들이 세를 규합하기 위해 저지른 일일 것으로 보여져. 이것은 일과성건이라기보다 땅밑에서 출구를 모색하고 있는 활화산의 용암힐 것같은 느낌이 들어.

여름에 있을 대통령 선거가 튀니지의 향방을 결정하는 주요 고비가 될 것임은 주지의 사실이지. 3주전 망명생활을 접고 입국한 이슬람 원리주의자가 이에 대비해서 빠른 시일 내에 세력을 모으기 위해서는 코란 9장에 기록된 예언자의 마지막 메세지 "이교도가 지나가면 숨어 있다가 죽여라" 를 실천할 필요가 있었고 신부살해가 그 신호탄이라면 사태는 외국인에게 심각하게 될 가능성이 높아.

현재 외국인 주로 유럽 관광객이 크게 감소하였네. 아마 유럽인들이 이슬람원리주의자들의 테러를 두려워한 때문일 것같아. 호텔이 거의 예약이 되지 않아 독일에서 튀니지 관광패키지가 200유로까지 내려갔다고 하더군. 하지만 누가 선뜻 튀니지로 오겠어.

주가도 올들어 하락세를 지속해서 12% 정도 내려갔네. 반면에 주변에 크레인 수가 크게 늘어난 것을 보면 건축은 아직 증가하고 있는 것같아.

튀니지의 장래를 대체로 밝게 해주는 것이 있다면 그것은 그동안 무료교육(국립대)을 통해 양산된 대규모의 대졸자 집단이라고 생각해. 대졸 행상의 분신자살로 혁명의 불이 지펴진 데서 알 수 있듯이 이들이 변화의 중심에 있는 것같아. 실제로 혁명의 엔진이 원천이 될 수 있다고 보네. 각종 자유화 정책은 이들이 자신의 재능을 살려 소득과 일자리를 창출하는 데 도움이 될 수 있겠지. 이곳에 진출한 한국 기업측의 이야기로는 혁명이후 이 규율부재로 해고당한 현지노동자들이 일자리를 돌려달라고 농성을 하는 등 노동자 관리는 더 어려워졌다고 하네.

치안 혹은 안보가 당연히 주어지는 것은 아니야. 한국도 안보에 더 신경을 써야할 것같아.

튀니스 속보 5 (Tuesday, January 25, 2011 9:31 PM 송부)

튀니스의 치안은 많이 안정되었습니다. 아랍국가답지 않게 민중봉기로 독재자를 축출하는 데 성공하였지요. 그동안 언론 통제와 (사복) 경찰의 감시 및 억압으로 할 말을 못하고 살던 민중들이 이제 맘껏 자기 의견을 토로할 수 있게 되었다고 좋아하더군요. 더 이상 정치후진국으로 남아 있지 않을 것같습니다. 튀니지인들 이제 자부심을 가질 만해요. 데모하는 국민을 향해 발포하라는 벤 알리에 대해 군총사령관이 항명하였고 그 뒤를 이은 군총사령관도 발포명령을 저바렸지요.

연일 데모가 이어지고 있어요. 벤알리를 따르던 자들을 내각에서 제거하라는 것이지요. 이것은 새로운 정치서비스산업의 탄생을 알리는 신호로 볼 수 있을 것같아요.

튀니스 속보 4 (: Friday, January 21, 2011 8:23 AM 송부)

치안 상황이 거의 정상화되고 있습니다. 아직 야간 통행금지가 실시되고 있지만 아프리카개발은행은 오전 9시부터 오후3시까지 영업합니다. 저희 가족은 모두 무사합니다. 어제 미국학교가 시간을 단축해서 개학하였습니다.

튀니지 속보 3 (Friday, January 21, 2011 8:11 AM 송부)

튀니지의 치안 사정이 거의 정상화된 듯합니다. 아직 야간 통행금지가 실시되고 있지만 이톨전 총성이 멎은 후 조용한 밤이 계속되고 있습니다. 그제부터 아프리카개발은행이 업무시간을 단축(아침 9시부터 오후 3시까지)해서 업무를 재개하였습니다. 미국학교도 어제 개학하였고요.

튀니스 속보 2 (Wednesday, January 19, 2011 10:35 AM 송부)

오늘 튀니스의 치안상황은 외견상 어제보다 많이 좋아진 것같습니다. 어제 밤 헬기는 떴지만 처음으로 총성이 멎었습니다. 일부 점포 등에 대한 약탈은 여전히 발생하였다고 합니다. 오늘은 아프리카개발은행의 상당 수 직원이 복귀하지 않은 가운데 업무를 재개한다고 해서 저는 시내건물로 출근하였습니다. 오다보니 대형 점포를 제외한 거의 모든 작은 가게들이 문을 열었습니다. 동네 입구를 통제하던 군병력이 사라졌고 대신 교통순경들이 다시 교통을 통제하고 있었습니다.

저희 가족들은 모두 무사합니다. 내일은 미국학교가 개학할 예정한다고 합니다.

튀니스 속보 1(2011년 1월 17일(월) 00:41:45 송부)

튀니스에서는 불안한 치안상황이 지속되고 있습니다. 지역마다 차이가 있지만 밤마다 총성이 들리곤 합니다. 가게와 은행 등을 약탈하는 폭도들에 대해 군인들이 대응하기 때문이라고 합니다. 길거리에서 쉽게 볼 수 있던 경찰들을 보기 어려워졌습니다. 망명한 Ben Ali 대통령에게 충성하던 대규모 경찰이 무력화된 때문으로 보입니다. 현재 군인들이 치안을 맡고 있지만 수가 많지 않습니다. 각 지역별로 주민들이 자발적으로 자기 동네를 지키겠다고 곡괭이 등을 들고 경계에 임하고 있습니다. 또 오후 이맘때면 길에 바리케이드를 설치하고 수상한 차량의 통행을 통제하고 있습니다. 대통령선거가 유고후 60일 이내 실시될 예정이지만 향후 3개월동안은 치안이 안정되기 어려울 것으로 보입니다.

주튀니지 한국 대사관에서는 주민들에게 꼭 필요한 체류가 아닌 한 국내로 일시 귀국할 것을 권장하고 있습니다. 일부 국가가 자국민을 소개시켰다고 합니다. 우리나라도 일부 상사주재원 등이 소개한다고 합니다.

아프리카개발은행은 소개 계획이 없습니다. 아마 내일 (월) 정상 근무하게 될 것같습니다. 아프리카개발은행이 업무를 계속하는 한 저와 저희 가족(처와 고2, 고3 아들)은 이곳에 머물 생각입니다. 아프리카개발은행의 정상 업무 수행이 튀니지의 정국 안정에 조금이라도 보탬되었으면 하고 바라면서요…

Tunisia 독재정권의 붕괴와 민주화는 튀니지에 거의 존재하지 않던 “정치 서비스 산업”의 탄생을 예고하는 것으로 보입니다. 그동안 튀니지는 보편교육을 지향하는 국립학교(초, 중, 고, 대학, 대학원 모두 무료) 운영으로 양질의 대졸자를 양산하였습니다. 그런데 농업발전단계에서 산업화단계로 이행하는 데 실패한 다음, 대졸자 고용효과가 크지 않은 관광 등 서비스 산업에 정책노력을 집중하다보니 이들을 고용할 일자리가 그다지 창출되지 않았습니다. 교육받은 많은 젊은 이들이 희망을 찾지 못한 가운데 어느 젊은 대졸 노점상의 분신이 민중봉기의 도화선이 된 것으로 보입니다. 하지만 이제 과거 반정부 블로그를 운영하던 사람이 거국내각의 일원으로 참여한 데서 볼 수 있듯이 정치민주화로 인해 정당 등 새로운 서비스산업활동이 태동될 가능성도 엿보입니다. 이에 따라 대졸 실업자의 상당부분이 직간접효과에 의해 고용될 수 있었으면 하고 희망해 해봅니다.